DTN Midday Livestock Comments          04/18 11:47

   Hogs Dip Lower After Disappointment in Thursday's Export Report 

   Packer interest could improve throughout the afternoon but trade will likely 
be delayed until Friday. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   It's been quite a day for the livestock complex as the morning's export 
report didn't lend the market much support and still no cash cattle trade has 
developed. At this point, it's looking like the week's cash trade will be 
delayed until Friday. May corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean 
meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 170 points.

   Thursday's export report showed beef net sales of 17,700 metric tons (mt) 
for 2024 were up 30% from the previous week and 27% from the prior four-week 
average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (5,400 mt), China (3,600 mt) 
and Japan (2,800 mt). Pork net sales of 21,800 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year 
low -- were down 54% from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week 
average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (8,500 mt) China (3,000 mt) and 
Japan (2,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is back to trading higher but the market has yet to 
see traders willing to advance the market beyond current resistance levels. If 
traders decide to trade above resistance ($175.50 in the spot June contract), 
it would solely be from technical strength as boxed beef prices haven't been 
supportive this week and the week's cash cattle trade is expected to be lower. 
June live cattle are down $0.27 at $175.07, August live cattle are up $0.40 at 
$173.17 and October live cattle are up $0.70 at $176.42. No cash cattle trade 
has developed yet. Asking prices are noted in the South at $184 to $185 and in 
the North at $295. Given that bids are still elusive, trade will likely be 
delayed until Friday.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.71 ($296.10) and select down 
$1.50 ($289.38) with a movement of 70 loads (48.89 loads of choice, 7.62 loads 
of select, zero loads of trim and 13.49 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle complex sprung back into action as traders were encouraged 
to see the live cattle contracts trading higher which lends enough support for 
feeders to shoot higher, too. May feeders are up $1.67 at $241.95, August 
feeders are up $1.67 at $253.80 and September feeders are up $1.50 at $254.87. 
Corn prices are trading mildly lower, which isn't pressuring the market from a 
feed-expense perspective either.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is trading lower as the market is disappointed in the 
morning's export report. With today's report showing a marketing-year low at 
only 21,800 mt, traders are disappointed in international demand, although 
midday pork cutout prices are up $2.44 which is positive. Even so, the complex 
is still trading lower as the market's enthusiasm seemed to disappear. June 
lean hogs are down $1.22 at $101.50, July lean hogs are down $1.20 at $103.10 
and August lean hogs are down $1.05 at $101.02.

   The projected lean hog index for April 17 is up $0.10 at $91.46, and the 
actual index for April 16 is up $0.38 at $91.36. Hog prices are higher on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.04 with a weighted average price of 
$90.49, ranging from $83 to $92 on 2,277 head and a five-day rolling average of 
$88.41. Pork cutouts total 158.43 loads with 149.70 loads of pork cuts and 8.74 
loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.44, $101.99.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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